Sports
UFC 305Trending1000x

Test: UFC 305: Adesanya vs Du Plessis

UFC Middleweight Championship. Israel Adesanya, the pride of Nigeria, looks to reclaim the belt against South Africa's Dricus Du Plessis in an Africa vs Africa showdown.

Volume

52,000,000

Traders

9,400

Resolves

Apr 5, 2026

Source

UFC

TKTekedia
UFC 305
Apr 5, 2026 23:00 ET
AD
Adesanya
Home Win1.80
VS
DU
Du Plessis
Away Win2.00
Implied ProbabilityMarket Odds
56%
50%

Comments

12
YO

Tip: Share your position to add credibility to your analysis

CA
Test: ChiefAnalystYes @ 0.622h ago

The momentum on this market is strong. I've been following the fundamentals closely and the current price doesn't fully reflect the probability. Expect a move toward 80% within the next 2 weeks.

+43
TO
Test: TraderOG1h ago

Agreed. The order book depth at 65c is thin -- any large buy order will push through quickly.

+11
CV
Test: ContraryViewNo @ 0.3545m ago

I think you're overestimating the conviction here. The 7-day chart shows resistance at 72%. There's strong selling pressure there.

+3
QT
Test: QuantTrader9Yes @ 0.546h ago

Running my model on this: based on historical resolution patterns for this category, fair value sits around 68%. Current price of 67% represents a ~9% edge if my assumptions are correct. Sizing accordingly with 25x leverage.

+41
DD
Test: DataDriven_NG1d ago

Looking at the volume profile: 73% of volume in the last 24h has been on the Yes side. The order book is also skewed 2:1 in favor of Yes. Smart money is clearly positioned here.

+25
LW
Test: LagosWhaleYes @ 0.584h ago

Just added a significant position here. The information asymmetry is massive -- most retail participants haven't priced in the latest regulatory developments. This is free money at current levels.

+16
SN
Test: Skeptic_NG3h ago

"Free money" -- that's what people said about Dangote at cNaira 350 too. Always DYOR.

+16

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Reward Pool
3 rewards
1st
UFC Fight Nighttrip

2 ringside tickets to the next UFC event in Africa

2nd
Signed UFC Glovesmerchandise

Official UFC gloves signed by Israel Adesanya

3rd
UFC Fight Passcustom

1-year UFC Fight Pass subscription