Test: NGX All-Share Index above 110,000 by Q3 2026?
This market resolves Yes if the Nigerian Stock Exchange All-Share Index closes above 110,000 points at any point before September 30, 2026.
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Running my model on this: based on historical resolution patterns for this category, fair value sits around 68%. Current price of 63% represents a ~13% edge if my assumptions are correct. Sizing accordingly with 25x leverage.
The momentum on this market is strong. I've been following the fundamentals closely and the current price doesn't fully reflect the probability. Expect a move toward 80% within the next 2 weeks.
Agreed. The order book depth at 65c is thin -- any large buy order will push through quickly.
I think you're overestimating the conviction here. The 7-day chart shows resistance at 72%. There's strong selling pressure there.
Looking at the volume profile: 73% of volume in the last 24h has been on the Yes side. The order book is also skewed 2:1 in favor of Yes. Smart money is clearly positioned here.
Just added a significant position here. The information asymmetry is massive -- most retail participants haven't priced in the latest regulatory developments. This is free money at current levels.
"Free money" -- that's what people said about Dangote at cNaira 350 too. Always DYOR.
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Shares pay out 1.00 each if this market resolves Yes. Max loss is the amount invested.
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Blucera
Building the future of digital commerce
Blucera is a cutting-edge digital solutions company specializing in e-commerce, fintech, and enterprise software solutions for businesses across Africa.
Exclusive 2-day investment masterclass with top Nigerian fund managers
3-month Bloomberg Terminal access
Premium annual NGX analysis report from ContiSX Research